📐 Yield Curve
Treasury Yields — 3mo / 2yr / 10yr / 30yr
When short-term yields exceed long-term yields, the curve is inverted — historically the most reliable recession signal, typically 6–18 months ahead. Watch for 2yr > 10yr.
🏦 Fed Controls: Fed Funds Rate vs. T-Bills
The Fed sets the overnight rate. T-Bills (short-term, <1yr) follow it almost immediately. This is the rate you hear about at Fed press conferences. Currently — — being cut slowly after peaking near 5.5%.
📈 Market Controls: 2yr / 10yr / 30yr Treasury Yields
The market sets these based on inflation expectations, growth outlook, and supply/demand. The Fed can influence but not dictate. When 10yr > 2yr, curve is normal. When 2yr > 10yr, it’s inverted — recession signal.
📈 Total US Gross Debt Over Time ($T)
Gross federal debt — everything the US government owes, including intragovernmental debt (Social Security trust fund, etc.). Crossed $36T in 2025. Adding roughly $1T every 90–100 days.
💰 How Much Debt Is In Each Bucket?
T-Notes (2-10yr) are the biggest chunk at $14.7T. T-Bills ($5.8T) roll over constantly — refinanced at current rates every few weeks. T-Bonds $4.5T, TIPS $2.0T, FRNs $600B. Blue = Fed-influenced. Yellow/Red = market-set.
😟 Main Street vs. Wall Street
UMich Consumer Sentiment vs. S&P 500 (Indexed to 100)
When stocks soar but consumers feel terrible, the market is disconnected from reality. One of them is wrong — and historically it's the market that corrects.
🛢️ Energy Markets
Brent (Paper) vs. WTI Spot (Physical) — Price Per Barrel · XLE Per Share
Brent (yellow) = international/paper price · WTI (red) = US physical delivery price · XLE (blue) = energy stock ETF price per share.
Brent and WTI are in $/barrel (left axis). XLE is in $/share (right axis). When Brent runs far above WTI = speculation premium. When XLE detaches from oil = stocks pricing in a different reality.
Current: Brent —/bbl · WTI —/bbl · XLE —/share
💸 National Debt
US National Debt vs. GDP (Debt-to-GDP Ratio)
Raw debt numbers are hard to interpret — $39 trillion sounds big but context matters. Debt-to-GDP above 100% means the country owes more than it produces in a year. The US crossed that threshold and hasn't looked back.
🌏 Global Risk Signals
USD/JPY vs. Japan Borrow Rate — Carry Trade Signal
Purple (left axis) = USD/JPY exchange rate — how many yen per dollar. Higher = weaker yen = carry trade still alive.
Teal (right axis) = Japan 3-month interbank rate — the actual cost to borrow yen. Near zero for decades; rising now.
When borrow rate rises AND yen strengthens (USD/JPY drops) simultaneously = carry trade unwinding. That's the danger signal. Aug 2024 was a preview.
High-Yield Credit Spread (OAS)
The extra yield junk bonds pay over Treasuries. Spikes when credit markets smell trouble — often before stocks react. Below 3% = complacency. Above 6% = stress. Above 10% = crisis.
🌍 Foreign Holdings of US Debt
Who Holds US Treasury Debt — Top 8 Countries ($B)
Current holdings by major foreign creditors. Japan and China have both been selling Treasuries. When major holders exit, bond prices fall and yields rise — increasing US borrowing costs.
Japan vs. China — Treasury Holdings Over Time ($B)
Japan overtook China as the #1 holder. Both are reducing exposure. China was at $1.03T in Jan 2022 — now at $859B. A continued exit = upward pressure on US yields.
Trend Since Jan 2022 (Change in $B)
Net change in holdings from Jan 2022 to latest. Green = buying. Red = selling. The selling trend from Japan and China is structural, not a blip.
🖨️ Money Supply
M2 Money Supply ($B)
Total money in circulation. The Fed printed ~$5 trillion during COVID (2020–2022), inflating asset prices. It's now slowly contracting. M2 growth correlates with stock prices ~6 months later — watch the trend.